ABSTRACT
Objective:To investigate the nutritional and metabolic risk factors associated with recurrence in patients with newly diagnosed ulcerative colitis (UC), so as to allow better clinical prediction of recurrence.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted. Patients newly diagnosed with UC (mild and moderate) from the People's Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region were screened based on prespecified inclusion and exclusion criteria from January 2016 to January 2019. Patients were followed up regularly for three years. Subgroups were determined according to the presence or absence of recurrence. The patients in the UC recurrence group were further stratified according to the time to recurrence into short-term (0-6 months), mid-term (6-12 months) and long-term (12-36 months) recurrence groups. The nutritional and metabolic risk factors related to recurrence were evaluated by univariate analysis and multifactorial logistic regression analysis, and the predictive value was evaluated via receiver operating characteristic curve. The risk factors were then compared across the 3 subgroups with recurrence.Results:A total of 210 patients newly diagnosed with UC (mild and moderate) were included, including 38 experiencing recurrence within 0-6 months, 27 within 6-12 months, 24 within 12-36 months, and 121 without recurrence. There were no statistically significant differences in gender, age, smoking history, and family history in the recurrence group compared with the non-recurrence group. Univariate analysis suggested significant differences in homocysteine, folate, total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), apolipoprotein A/B (ApoA/B), 25-hydroxy vitamin D 3, and body mass index (BMI) between recurrence and non-recurrence groups ( P < 0.05). Multifactorial binary logistic regression analysis suggested that homocysteine ( OR = 0.869, 95% CI: 0.782 to 0.965, P = 0.009), triglycerides ( OR = 0.176, 95% CI: 0.060 to 0.519, P = 0.002), LDL ( OR = 0.256, 95% CI: 0.089 to 0.733, P = 0.011), 25-hydroxy vitamin D 3 ( OR = 0.937, 95% CI: 0.895 to 0.0.982, P = 0.006), and BMI ( OR = 1.319, 95% CI: 1.162 to 1.498, P < 0.01) were independent risk factors for UC recurrence. The predictive efficiency of individual risk factors in descending order was as following: LDL (AUC = 0.762, Youden's index [YI] = 0.42, cut-off value = 2.345), triglycerides (AUC = 0.718, YI = 0.361, cut-off value = 1), homocysteine (AUC = 0.666, YI = 0.283, cut-off value = 13.265). There were no statistically significant differences in gender, age, smoking history, and family history across the short-term, mid-term and long-term recurrence groups. There were significant differences in HDL and ApoA/B levels between the short-term and the long-term recurrence groups ( P < 0.05). Conclusions:Recurrence of the disease in UC patients results from the combined effects of multiple factors. The changes in homocysteine, triglycerides, LDL, 25-hydroxy vitamin D 3, and BMI in UC patients should be proactively monitored to prevent recurrence.